PassedThe fired level is the developing VAH at $76,843 — but the 15m trigger candle (02:30 close) is a tiny, low-volume inside-the-range candle that wicked both dPOC and dVAH and closed in the middle at $76,796.7: that is chop between dVAL/dPOC/VWAP/dVAH, not a clean rejection with follow-through. Price is sitting essentially on daily VWAP ($76,753) and the dev POC ($76,712) — the no-trade middle of the developing profile — and the read is contradicted anyway: CCV bias is long while CVD shows bearish divergence, 5m delta is flat (+2.3 BTC, no response at the level), and volume into the level is negligible. Poor reaction quality plus conflicting signals: no clean setup.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 02:45 UTC
PassedThe only fired location is daily VWAP ($76,753.3), which STATE says I already attempted within the last 30 minutes — no fresh 15m trigger has printed since (the named 15m close at 02:30 actually closed BELOW VWAP and below dVAH, contradicting the 5m reclaim that fired the gate). Price is pinned in a $76,700–76,950 chop between dPOC, VWAP and dVAH with flat 5m delta (+1.7 BTC) and tiny volume — a poor, no-conviction reaction at a mid-range location, and the 4h CVD is confirming_down against the long_bias CCV read. No clean trigger, no reaction quality: pass.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 02:40 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" is a 15m candle that closed $17 below daily VWAP ($76,737 vs $76,754.1) while simultaneously wicking below and reclaiming dPOC ($76,702.5) — a mixed, contradictory reaction rather than a clean close through or rejection at a level. Reaction quality is poor: 1.2–2.4 BTC volume on the last 15m bars, Delta 5m flat (−0.2 BTC/30m), no OI response, so there is no aggressive flow confirming a VWAP loss. Corroboration also conflicts: CCV bias is long_bias/armed and price is sitting mid-range between dVAL $76,638 and dVAH $76,843 — no-trade middle-of-value territory — so a short here is against the bias with no confirmed LTF structure change, and a long has no triggered level reaction.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 02:30 UTC
PassedThe only direction available to me on this book is a short (an open long already runs), and the fired level — dHigh $76,948.7 — is a "rejection" only in the most technical sense: the 15m 02:00 candle's high IS the developing day high, so there is no swept, pre-existing level with clustered stops, just a fresh intraday extreme, and that candle closed UP, not as a rejection body. Corroboration also opposes a short: CCV bias is long_bias with acceptance armed, price is holding above daily VWAP $76,753.7 and reclaimed dVAH $76,843.0 on that same close, 5m delta is flat (no seller response at the high), and the rotation target of the armed CCV is higher (pdVAL $77,138 / pdEQ $77,439). A counter-bias short with no confirmed LTF structure break and no quality reaction is a pass.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 02:15 UTC
PassedThis book already holds an open long, so only a short could be recorded — but the only trigger present is a bullish one: the 01:45 15m candle closed ABOVE dVAH $76,843 and reclaimed daily VWAP $76,749.6, with CCV bias long and price holding above the day open. There is no bearish trigger at any tradeable level (no rejection close at dVAH/dHigh, no failed auction), and Delta 5m is flat with no sell response, so a counter-trade short would be fading a confirmed upside reclaim with zero corroboration.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 02:00 UTC
PassedThis book already holds an open long, so only a short could be recorded — and there is no short setup here: the 15m trigger (01:45 close) reclaimed dVAL/dPOC/VWAP from below and the 5m just closed above dVAH $76,843, which is a bullish reclaim, not a rejection. CCV bias is long_bias and the developing day is grinding up off the pdL/dLow sweep, so a short would be a counter-bias fade of momentum into the developing day high with no rejection close at that level.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 01:55 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m sweep-and-reclaim of the developing dVAL ($76,638) — but a 5m close can never be the named trigger, and the only closed 15m candle (01:15) is a down candle that rejected dVAH and sits mid-range, not a reclaim close at dVAL. Structurally price is pinned on daily VWAP ($76,745) / dPOC ($76,702) — the middle of a very tight 15m range ($76,389–$76,947), the POC-chop no-trade zone — with CVD and 5m delta both confirming down while CCV bias reads long: conflicting signals and no 15m trigger. No trade.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 01:35 UTC
PassedThe only trigger present is a 15m candle (01:15 UTC) that wicked dVAH $76,871 and closed back below VWAP $76,753.6 — a minor rejection in a $200-wide overnight chop band where dPOC $76,702.5, VWAP $76,753.6 and dVAL $76,662 are all stacked within $90 of each other and of price. That is fair-value middle-of-range, not a location: any short has its first real objective at dLow/D-Open $76,478.9 with invalidation above the dVAH wick $76,895, which is barely 1:1 and fails the floor. Corroboration is also mixed — CCV bias reads long_bias and OI is flat, against a short — so no clean setup here.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 01:30 UTC
PassedThe only fired trigger is a 5m VWAP reclaim, and a 5m close can never be the named trigger — the 15m that closed at 01:15 actually closed DOWN, rejecting the developing VAH/day high ($76,897/$76,947.7), which points the other way from the VWAP long. Signals also conflict: CCV reads long_bias while 4h CVD is confirming_down, 5m delta is flat (no reaction quality at VWAP), and OI is flat — a poor reaction at the level. With price wedged between dVAL $76,648 and dVAH $76,897 there is no clean level-reaction and no honest 2:1 to a major objective in either direction.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 01:25 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" here is a 15m candle that merely tagged the developing day high ($76,870.8) — a level that is itself the current extreme of a 40-minute bounce off the day low, not a pre-existing, stop-rich swept level, so there is no valid sweep-reclaim. The 15m close above dPOC/dVAH/VWAP is a thrust with no retest yet, and it points long into a market whose daily/4H structure is clearly down (yesterday closed at the low, 4H closed down, CVD confirming_down), so corroboration is missing and CCV long_bias conflicts with the bearish tape. Overnight volume is negligible (0.0–8 BTC per candle) and 5m delta is flat +3.7 BTC — a poor reaction that fails the reaction-quality bar on its own.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 01:00 UTC
PassedThe gate fired on a 5m close through dVAH ($76,783), but a 5m close is never a valid trigger, and the last CLOSED 15m candle (00:45 UTC) actually closed BELOW both dVAH and dPOC — i.e. the named-timeframe evidence contradicts the long. On top of that, STATE shows this dVAH level was already attempted within the last 30 minutes, so I require a fresh 15m trigger. Volume into this level is negligible (7 BTC on the 5m thrust), Delta 5m is flat (+2.5 BTC) and 4h CVD is confirming_down after a -1.59% day that closed on the lows — a poor reaction at the level, so no trade.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 00:55 UTC
PassedThe fired level is daily VWAP ($76,679.9) but the "trigger" is a $30 wick-and-close inside a $76,620–76,807 chop band on almost no volume — the 15m 00:30 candle closed BELOW dPOC while reclaiming VWAP/dVAL, so the level interaction is contradictory, not a clean rejection. Corroboration is also missing: 4H CVD confirming_down, daily/4H structure one-time-framing lower off $78,489 into a fresh pdL sweep, yet CCV bias reads long — and Delta 5m is flat (+0.6 BTC), a poor, no-response reaction at the level. No structural target exists within reach that clears 2:1 from a stop below $76,478 dLow, so there is no clean trade here.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 00:45 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" here is a 5m wick-and-reclaim of daily VWAP — a 5m close is never the named trigger on this book, and the 15m candle that closed at 00:30 merely held dPOC while rejecting dVAH/dHigh, i.e. a two-sided $100 chop inside a $76,478–76,807 opening balance. Price is pinned at VWAP/dPOC — the mid, explicitly a no-trade location — with the daily/4H structure still one-time-framing down (yesterday closed on its low) while CCV bias reads long: conflicting signals, no with-trend pullback in open space, and no swept defined level reclaimed. No qualifying 15m trigger = pass.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 00:35 UTC
PassedThe only "trigger" is a 15m wick of the developing dVAH/dHigh ($76,807) by 50 cents on 6.4 BTC — a trivial, low-volume touch of a level formed minutes ago in the first half-hour of a new day, not an obvious, stop-rich pre-existing level worth fading; reaction quality is poor (Delta 5m flat at -1 BTC, no response at all). Corroboration also conflicts: CCV bias reads long_bias and price just reclaimed dPOC and VWAP from below, so a short here fades into the day's fresh low/pdL ($76,389) area, while a long has no triggered level-reaction of its own. No clean setup — missing both a quality level-reaction and corroboration.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 00:30 UTC
PassedOnly a long may be recorded on this book, and there is no valid long trigger. The 15m candle that just closed (00:00 UTC) rejected the developing POC/VAH ($76,758.5/$76,788.0) — wicked above and closed below — which is a bearish reaction at the level, not a long trigger; the day is a fresh, brand-new session with only 15 minutes of data, so the dev value edges are noise-level. HTF structure is a clear downtrend (daily closed down hard at $76,494.9, 4H one-time-framing lower, CVD confirming_down, OI flat with a strong 24h downtrend backdrop), so a long here would be counter-trend into the top of the 15m range with no swept level reclaimed and no corroboration.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 00:15 UTC
PassedOnly a long may be recorded on this book, and there is no confirming 15-minute trigger for one: the last closed 15m candle (23:45 UTC) closed DOWN through dPOC/dVAH/dVWAP at $76,494.9, i.e. it rejects the long case rather than confirming it. The reclaim above dVAH $76,586.0 exists only on a 5m close (00:05 UTC) and the current 15m candle is still FORMING — a 5m close is never the named trigger. Corroboration is also mixed: 4h CVD is confirming_down, 5m delta is flat/negative, and price is in a fresh daily downtrend into pdL/pwL $76,389/$76,178.9, so a long here would be fading momentum into an unconfirmed reclaim.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 00:10 UTC
PassedOnly a long may be recorded on this book, and no long trigger has printed on the named 15-minute timeframe: the last closed 15m (23:45) closed DOWN through dPOC/dVAL/VWAP and the day open, and the only bullish evidence is a 5m reclaim of dPOC ($76,586.8) plus a 5m bullish delta divergence — a 1m/5m close is never the trigger. Structure is a clean downtrend (4h and daily closed down, 4h CVD confirming_down, fresh day/week lows at $76,389), so a long here fades momentum into the lows with no confirming 15m reclaim close.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 00:05 UTC
PassedNo price action / candle data is available at all this period, so there is no named 15-minute trigger candle I can cite — neither a reclaim close at pdL/pwL nor a with-trend close. Only a long may be recorded on this book, yet price is pinned at the day open ($76,494.9) and just above the pdL/wLow ($76,389), with CVD confirming down and OI flat — no confirmed reaction or reclaim to corroborate a long. Missing element: the trigger.View thesis →
Sep 11, 2026, 00:00 UTC
PassedOnly a long may be recorded on this book, and there is no clean long trigger. The "sweep" cited is of the developing day low — a fresh extreme made minutes ago, not a pre-existing, obvious stop-rich level, so it fails the sweep-reclaim location test; the 23:00 15m candle closed DOWN making the low, it is not a reclaim close back across a defined level. Flow contradicts a long anyway: CVD confirming_down, 5m delta -64.1 BTC into the low, price below daily VWAP $77,598.9 and below all developing value, with pwL $76,178.9 / pmL $76,178.9 still untested below.View thesis →
Sep 10, 2026, 23:15 UTC
PassedNo price action is available this tick, so I cannot name a specific 15-minute closed trigger candle — and TRIGGER FACTS shows no confirming close to cite. Additionally, state shows an open long on this book, so only a short could be recorded, yet the CCV bias is long_bias with a bullish CVD divergence and flat 5m delta into dVAL/pmVAL support ($77,204/$77,109) — a short here would be fading momentum into support against the bias with no corroboration. Missing element: the confirming trigger (and corroboration for the only permitted direction).View thesis →
Sep 10, 2026, 21:30 UTC