Thèse Long

Sweep-reclaim (SFP) of the previous-week low $75,907.5 — an obvious, pre-existing HTF level with clustered sell stops, which also coincides with the developing weekly/monthly low $75,500.6 zone just beneath. Trigger: the 15:00 UTC 30m candle (per TRIGGER FACTS, CLOSED) opened below $75,907.5 at $75,862.0, wicked to $75,500.6-area lows on the prior candle and closed back above the level at $76,265.0 — the reclaim close is the entry trigger, not a wick. Corroboration is separate from the trigger: price is holding at the lower edge of the monthly value area (mVAL $76,644 / M 6c VAL context) with 24h OI down -7.52% into the flush (shorts/stops being cleared, a liquidity grab rather than fresh committed supply), funding only mildly positive at +0.010% so longs are not crowded, and Fear & Greed 69 Greed with the higher monthly structure still up from the August base. Stop $75,350 sits beyond the whole sweep excursion low ($75,500.6) with a buffer off the obvious liquidity spot; T1 is the developing dPOC/daily VWAP shelf $76,854.5 (nearest meaningful HTF structure), T2 the developing wPOC $77,490.5 stacked with pwPOC $77,139.5 and the 4H POC $77,250 — risk $980, reward to T2 $1,160, about 1.18:1, so I invoke the named-setup exception: the failed-auction/SFP reclaim of a range low, whose stated reaction probability in the material is 64%; its preconditions hold — an obvious swept prior-period low, time/close back across the level, invalidation at the sweep extreme. T1 fraction is raised to 0.30 because T1 is a nearer minor level and confidence in reaching T2 is only moderate with CVD confirming down. T3 extends to pwVAH $78,838 if the reversal becomes a full rotation, runner rides beyond.