Thèse Long

Structure: a sweep-reclaim (SFP) of the developing day VAL $79,497 stacked directly beneath the settled pdVAL $79,541 — an obvious, stop-rich pair of value-area lows and also the day's low. Trigger: the 04:30 UTC 15m candle wicked to $79,494 (through both dVAL and pdVAL) and CLOSED back above at $79,647.3 — the reclaim close; the 04:40 5m close up on the day's largest recent volume (39 BTC) corroborates the response leg, and 5m delta is net positive (+46 BTC) refusing to confirm the new low. Corroboration: funding is neutral-positive (+0.0031%, no crowded longs), OI is rising into the flush (new shorts being trapped below value, the preferred SFP condition), and price is still inside prior-day value, i.e. a balanced/rotational tape where the swept low rotates back toward value. Entry at the reclaim close price; stop $79,330 gives ~0.2% buffer beneath the $79,494 sweep wick where the failure is proven wrong. T1 = daily VWAP $79,924.3 (nearest meaningful structure, also pdEQ/pdPOC cluster $79,845–79,870 just under it), T2 = dVAH/pwVAH $80,048 as the main value-area objective, T3 = the developing day high $80,417. R:R to T2 = 431.5 / 286.5 ≈ 1.51... below the 2:1 floor, so I take the larger 25% at T1 as a counter-trend/low-confidence banking choice given CVD is confirming_down on the 4h and the CCV bias reads short — this is a rotation back into value, not a trend reversal, so I bank early and let breakeven protect the rest.