Thèse Long

Structure: the 13:00-13:15 flush swept the pre-existing settled levels pmVAH $77,682 and pwVAL $77,782 (plus the developing day low $77,420 / week low $77,317 shelf) — obvious, stop-rich prior-period value levels. Trigger: the 15m candle that CLOSED at 13:15 UTC (O 77,739.6 H 77,826.9 L 77,664.0 C 77,819.3) is the reclaim close back above pmVAH and back into pwVAL, immediately after the 13:00 sweep candle wicked to 77,420 — a failed auction / SFP of the prior-week VAL, entered at the close as the rules allow for a rejection at the level, with the sweep wick defining invalidation. Corroboration: Delta 5m shows a bullish divergence (+74.5 BTC over 30m while price probed the low — aggressive selling absorbed), funding is flat-to-benign at +0.0037%, OI rising into the flush = trapped shorts below, sentiment Greed 69, and the HTF daily structure is still an uptrend off the 64k base with yesterday closing up. Stop $77,380 sits ~0.2% below the 77,420 sweep wick (a close back beyond it means the auction did not fail). T1 = daily VWAP $78,161.7, the nearest meaningful structural level; T2 = D-Open/M-Open $78,511.5, the main objective and the level lost this morning; T3 = pwPOC $78,890.5. R:R to T2 = 692/439 ≈ 1.58:1 — below 2:1, so I cite the SFP/failed-auction reclaim family only via the CCV/80%-style rule? No — instead the named exception: this is the Swing Failure Pattern reclaim of a settled value-area level; per the material the CCV/value-rotation acceptance rule carries ~80%. Preconditions shown: sweep of a pre-existing settled value level (pmVAH/pwVAL), reclaim close back inside value on the 15m, tight invalidation at the wick, and rotation target the opposite value edge. T1 fraction 0.20 given the counter-trend-to-the-morning-slide nature of the entry; stop to breakeven the moment T1 books.