Thèse Long

Structure: sweep-reclaim (SFP/failed auction) of the settled previous-day low / developing day low at $76,937.4 — an obvious, stop-rich prior-period extreme, with the week open $77,685.3, dVAL $77,697.0 and pwVAL $77,782.0 stacked just above as the reclaim zone. Trigger: the 2026-08-30 23:45 UTC 15m candle wicked to $76,937.4 and CLOSED back above at $77,650.6 (a close, not a wick), corroborated by the 23:55 5m and 23:59 1m up-closes reclaiming the flush. Corroboration: the flush came on the day's heaviest volume (105/295/185 BTC on the 15m sequence) into the level while 5m taker delta has gone flat (-210 BTC over 30m) — aggressive selling is no longer confirming the new low, i.e. delta refuses to make the extreme, the classic trapped-short read; sentiment is Greed (69), funding is benign at +0.0055% so shorts are not being paid to hold, and OI is falling (-0.52% 4h) which weakens but does not invalidate. Entry at $77,650.6 is the reclaim close itself (the wick defines the stop, so entry at the close is permitted); stop $76,780 sits ~0.2% beyond the $76,937.4 sweep wick — a close back below that means the auction did not fail and D-nPOC↓ $76,239.5 is next. T1 is the day open $78,199.0 (nearest meaningful structural level and the SFP-2.0-style first reference above); T2 is the pdPOC/dPOC/pwPOC cluster at $78,891.5, the untested value magnet. Risk to stop is $870.6, reward to T2 is $1,240.9 — but I take first profit early per SFP rules and size 25% at T1 as a named counter-trend caveat (this is a long against a down-closing daily and confirming_down CVD, so confidence in T2 is moderate). R:R entry→T2 = 1.43:1, which sits in the 1:1–2:1 band; I invoke the named-setup exception on the Failed Auction / SFP with the reclaim close, whose preconditions all hold here: an obvious pre-existing swept level (pdL), time spent below it with the reclaim close back inside, tight invalidation at the sweep wick, and heavy volume at the level. T3 $79,351.9 is the developing day high / pdH extension.