Thèse Long

Structure: the settled previous-day high $78,028 (tier one) and the developing dVAH $78,109 sit stacked as a flipped support region; price broke above both on the 11:30–13:00 impulse and has now back-tested them. Trigger: the 13:45 UTC 15m candle wicked down to $77,784.7 — through both pdH and dVAH — and CLOSED back above at $78,518.3, a sweep-reclaim / rejection-at-level candle; the 13:55 5m close up corroborates the reclaim. Corroboration: 4h CVD confirming_up (+391.8 BTC), open interest healthy_uptrend on both 4h (+0.67%) and 24h (+3.37%) so new money is joining, funding a neutral +0.010%, price well above daily VWAP $77,732 and above both D-Open and W-Open — value is migrating higher day over day (today's VA entirely above yesterday's), so I trade with value and against the CCV short bias, whose acceptance has already failed. Entry at the reclaim close $78,518; stop $77,620 sits ~0.2% below the $77,784.7 sweep wick and below VWAP/D-Open — a close back there kills the flip. T1 $79,173 is the last swing high (13:15 local high) just under the day high; T2 $79,521 is the previous-week high / pwVAH, the main objective and the untested weekly excess; T3 $80,715 is the weekly naked POC above. R:R to T2 = 1,003 / 898 ≈ 1.12:1 — below 2:1, so I cite the setup being taken: CCV 2.0 / failed-auction-SFP reclaim at a settled prior-day high, whose stated win rate to TP1 in the material is 85–87%; its preconditions all hold here — a defined pre-existing level (pdH $78,028) swept by the 13:45 wick, a confirmed close back across the level, tight invalidation just beyond the sweep wick, and quality confluence (dVAH + VWAP-side value migration + rising OI). Larger 25% at T1 given the counter-CCV-bias read and today's negative book.