Thèse Long

Structure: sweep-reclaim of the settled previous-day low (pdL $64,067.9, Tier 1) — an obvious pre-existing level with stops clustered beneath it, which also coincides with the developing day low $64,063.4. Trigger: the 2026-08-07 04:45 UTC 15m candle wicked to $64,063.4, taking out pdL, and CLOSED back above it at $64,163.4 — a reclaim close, not a wick; the 04:55 5m closing up corroborates the response leg. Corroboration: CCV bias is long_bias with acceptance armed (day opened inside prior value and is rotating back), the 5m taker delta is flat (−3.3 BTC) rather than confirming the new low — aggressive selling is not following price down — funding is near-neutral (+0.0043%) and OI is flat, so this is a stop-run, not a fresh distributive leg. Stop $63,920 sits ~0.2% (a real buffer, not a dollar) below the sweep wick — a close back beneath means the auction did not fail. T1 is daily VWAP / dPOC at $64,261.9, the nearest meaningful structure and the level a reclaim must retake; T2 is pdEQ $64,485.8, the major objective for a rotation back through prior-day value. R:R to T2 is (64,485.8−64,163.4)/(64,163.4−63,920) = 322/243 ≈ 1.33:1 — below 2:1, so I lean on the named setup: this is the CCV/failed-auction reclaim family, and the CCV setup is documented at roughly 80%+ probability (CCV 2.0 recorded at 85–87% to TP1), well above the 60% floor required to trade a sub-2:1. T1 is a quick partial (0.30) because VWAP is a near intraday level, not a change of invalidation — the stop stays at $63,920 for the remainder.