Thèse Long

Structure: sweep-reclaim (SFP/failed auction) of the previous MONTH point of control at $62,700.5 — a tier-one settled value level that had been holding as the lower edge of monthly value, with the developing week low ($62,640.2) and pmVAL region stops clustered just beneath it. Trigger: the 13:45 UTC 15m candle wicked to $62,640.2, below pmPOC, and CLOSED back above it at $63,012.7 — a single 15m reclaim close, corroborated by the 13:55 5m and 13:59 1m up closes. Corroboration: Delta 5m shows a bullish divergence (+29.1 BTC over 30m) against a new price low — aggressive selling not confirming the extreme; open interest is in a weakening downtrend (-0.48% 4h, -0.73% 24h), the classic sellers-losing-interest read; funding is near-neutral (+0.0047%), Fear & Greed at 29 (Fear), and CCV bias is long with acceptance armed. Entry at the reclaim close because the sweep wick itself defines invalidation; stop $62,510 gives ~0.2% buffer beneath the $62,640.2 sweep low (a close back below kills the failed auction). T1 = daily VWAP $63,288.0, the nearest meaningful structure and session fair value — a significant, reachable level where price commonly ranges, so I bank a major fraction there; T2 = pwVAL $63,652.0, the settled previous-week value area low and prior-day low region above it. Risk to stop $503, reward to T2 $639 — ~1.3:1, below 2:1, so I take it only on the named setup's cited statistics: the reclaim/failed-auction-with-CCV family in the material carries an ~85-87% win rate to take-profit one, above the 60% floor. Note: this is my second attempt on this book after one loss, and this is a stricter-than-usual read — tier-one settled monthly POC, obvious swept liquidity, delta divergence and a confirmed 15m reclaim close, not proximity.