Long thesis

Structure: sweep-reclaim (failed auction/SFP) of the settled previous-week value area low pwVAL $77,782 — an obvious, stop-rich weekly boundary — with the developing week POC/VAL ($77,434.5/$77,388.6) stacked just beneath as confluence. Trigger: the 2026-08-31 00:00 UTC 30m candle, shown CLOSED in TRIGGER FACTS, wicked down to $77,384.6 (through wPOC and beneath pwVAL) and CLOSED back above both at $77,854.7 — the reclaim close, not a wick. Corroboration is separate from the trigger: CCV bias is long_bias with acceptance armed, price closed back above the daily VWAP $77,609 and the day/week open $77,650.6, funding is only mildly positive (+0.010%, no crowded long), and the higher-timeframe bias is bullish — August closed up huge ($62.8k → $77.85k) with the monthly value area high $77,574 now beneath price as support. Stop at $76,850 sits below the sweep wick AND below the prior-day low $76,937.4 / pwL $76,622-region liquidity shelf, wider than an intraday stop and off the obvious spot; risk $1,004.7. T1 is the nearest major HTF structure, the naked weekly/daily POC $78,890.5 (a first-touch magnet). T2 is pwVAH $79,909.0 for reward $2,054.3 — R:R to T2 = 2.04:1, clearing the 2:1 floor. T3 is the previous-week/month high $81,468.1. Small 15% at T1 because it is a major level and confidence in reaching pwVAH is decent; runner 40% rides toward the range high.