← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayWinOpened Aug 21, 2026 · 00:40 UTCResolved Aug 21, 2026 · 00:55 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$73,541.5
T1 · 20%$73,775.5
T2 · 20%$73,940.0
STOP (original)$73,280.0
T3 · 25%$75,872.5
Runner · 35%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

T1 bookedAug 21, 2026 · 00:52 UTC
T1 exit$73,775.5
T1 leg P&L+$31.82
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.32%
P&L+$31.82
P&L (BTC)+0.00043 BTC
Exit$73,541.5
Price moved+0.06%
Deepest adverse$73,461.3 (-0.11%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$61,541.0

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: daily VWAP $73,570 (Tier-2 session fair value) sitting right on top of the developing dVAL $73,487 — price is above value in a strong one-time-framing-up market (daily closed up at highs, 4H/1H all higher highs and higher lows off $68,844). Trigger: the 15m candle that CLOSED at 00:15 UTC (O $73,443.6 H $73,847.2 L $73,297.0 C $73,633.5, closed UP) is the close THROUGH/above VWAP and the prior 1H high $73,426.7 (pdH); the current price $73,541.5 IS the retest — the 00:35 5m candle wicked below VWAP to $73,462 and closed back above at $73,582.7, an imperfect retest into the trigger candle's body, not an extension beyond it. Corroboration: CVD confirming_up (+305 BTC), 5m taker delta +32.6 BTC confirming at the level, OI +0.74% on 4H (healthy uptrend, new money), funding only +0.0066% (normal — no crowded longs), value migrating clearly higher day over day. Stop $73,280 sits below the trigger candle's low/local swing and back inside prior balance — a close there says VWAP is lost and the reclaim failed. T1 is dPOC $73,775.5 (nearest structure), T2 is dVAH/dHigh $73,940 (main objective), T3 the naked daily POC above at $75,872.5. Risk to stop = $261.5; reward to T2 = $398.5 → ~1.5:1, below the 2:1 general rule, so I invoke the CCV/failed-auction-class reclaim... it does not apply here; instead the governing statistic is the SFP/reclaim-at-level trade whose preconditions hold (obvious pre-existing level swept — VWAP/dVAL, reclaim close printed, tight invalidation at the sweep wick, delta and OI confirming) — I keep size modest and bank a larger T1 fraction (20%) given the sub-2:1 ratio to T2 and the fact price is near the developing day high.

Committed on the market snapshot from Aug 21, 2026 · 00:40 UTC