← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayWinOpened Jul 20, 2026 · 24:55 UTCResolved Jul 20, 2026 · 01:52 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$64,506.5
T1 · 15%$64,760.8
Target$65,019.0
Stop$64,180.0

Outcome

T1 exit$64,760.8
T1 leg P&L+$29.57
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.30%
P&L+$29.57
P&L (BTC)+0.00046 BTC
Exit$64,506.5
Price moved+0.06%
Deepest adverse$64,424.1 (-0.13%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$53,980.3

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Level: previous-day VAL (settled pdVAL) at $64,453.0 — a genuine value-area edge and stop-rich reference just above the pd low ($64,172) and the naked POC below at $64,110. Trigger: the 00:50 UTC 5m candle wicked below pdVAL to $64,330.1 and CLOSED back above it at $64,506.5 — an SFP/reclaim of the swept level, the concrete reaction the method requires (confirmed by the 00:54 1m closing up). Corroboration: 4h CVD is confirming_up (+179 BTC), OI is flat-to-declining into the sweep (shorts covering, not new longs trapped short-side, mild bearish caveat), and price sits below daily VWAP ($64,760.8) which gives clean upside room. The 5m delta is showing local down-pressure into the wick — that is the selling being absorbed at the reclaim, consistent with the failed auction. Entry at the reclaim close; stop $64,180 sits below the sweep wick and the pd low with buffer (invalidation = a real acceptance below pdVAL/pd low). T1 at daily VWAP $64,760.8 (nearest structural magnet, also developing-day POC region); T2 at developing VAH / pd session high area $65,019. Risk ≈ $326, reward to T2 ≈ $512 → ~1.57:1, taken on the high-probability first-touch reclaim of a swept settled value edge with VWAP as the intermediate target.

Committed on the market snapshot from Jul 20, 2026 · 24:55 UTC