Long thesis
The call
Outcome
Sized under
Price chart
Reasoning
Structure: reclaim of daily VWAP ($63,129.5, session fair value / tier-2 level). The 14:30 15m candle wicked below VWAP (low $62,984.1) and CLOSED back above it ($63,186.0) — a VWAP reclaim/rejection trigger, and this comes right after the 13:00 1H candle swept the developing day low/VAL region ($62,447.2) and closed back up ($63,055.4), a failed-auction/SFP of the lows. Corroboration: CCV bias long_bias with acceptance armed, 4h CVD confirming_up (+40.6 BTC), price reclaiming above VWAP into value. OI shows short_covering on the 4h — the down leg was shorts, and the reclaim traps late shorts. Entry at the reclaim close near VWAP; stop $62,380 sits below the swept session low ($62,447) with room past the sweep wick — a close back below invalidates the reclaim. T1 at the day open / prior-week POC cluster ($63,709.6), the nearest structural resistance. T2 at the naked day POC above ($64,026.5), which is also prior-day POC — a magnet on first tap. R:R to T2 ≈ ($64,026.5-$63,186)/($63,186-$62,380) = 840/806 ≈ 1.04:1 — thin, but the CCV-armed long-bias reclaim off swept lows with CVD confirming justifies taking it as a high-probability rotation setup, banking early at T1.
Committed on the market snapshot from Jul 17, 2026 · 14:40 UTC