Long thesis
The call
The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.
Outcome
Sized under
Price chart
Reasoning
This low is the floor of both the 4h and 24h ranges, and it sits right on the weekly value-area low and the Daniel range VAL (~$76,444-450). The sweep went $107 below it. In the 03:01 minute sellers hit hard (-42 BTC delta, about 13x normal volume) while open interest rose 0.29%, so new shorts and stopped longs were trapped under the level. Price never accepted down there: it spent only 3 minutes below, and the low printed at $76,401. Then at 03:08 buyers pushed back (+15.5 BTC, 5x the P90). That minute closed above the 1-minute fractal at $76,655 and back above pdL, pdVAL and the day open. This differs from yesterday's dLow passes, where price stayed under the level with open interest rising: this time price came back fast with flow against the sweep. Stop $76,247.6: about 0.2% below the $76,401 low and just past the pwVAL at $76,239. Targets: (1) the dPOC at $76,978 (the 4h POC is $76,987), the first real value magnet, booking 30%; (2) the pwPOC at $77,411, a tier 1 level next to the month open, booking 25%; (3) the SFP 2.0 at $78,095, booking 20%. The last 25% trails as a runner toward the range high at $78,743.
Committed on the market snapshot from Nov 3, 2026 · 03:05 UTC