Short thesis

ShortDayLossOpened Jul 25, 2026 · 01:01 UTCResolved Jul 25, 2026 · 13:45 UTC

The call

DirectionShort

Entry$63,977.2

T1 · 20%$63,940.1

Target$63,636.0

STOP (original)$64,136.0

Outcome

T1 bookedJul 25, 2026 · 01:11 UTC

T1 exit$63,940.1

T1 leg P&L+$5.80

ResultLoss · Stopped out

Return on margin-0.93%

P&L-$93.49

P&L (BTC)-0.00146 BTC

Exit$64,136.0

Price moved+0.19%

Deepest adverse$64,147.1 (+0.27%)

Sized under

Account$10,000

Leverage5×

Notional$50,000

Liquidation$79,474.8

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

The trade is the loss of developing VAL at $63,986: the closed 2026-07-25 00:45 UTC 15-minute candle opened above it and closed through it at $63,977.2, and current price is the immediate backtest rather than an extension. The short is corroborated by price below daily VWAP/day open, confirming-down 4h CVD and 5m delta, positive funding, and bearish local pressure; flat/declining OI weakens but does not contradict the structure. The stop has roughly 0.2% room beyond the trigger candle's $64,008.1 swing high; quick T1 is the developing day low at $63,940.1 and T2 is settled pdVAL at $63,636, giving approximately 2.15:1 reward-to-risk to T2.

Committed on the market snapshot from Jul 25, 2026 · 01:00 UTC